Inspired by video games and action movies, the wannabe cowboys in the White House and the Department of Defense planned and executed the armed kidnapping of Venezuela's President Maduro. But there was no real plan for what to do after the whooping, hollering and chest thumping. Hoping the major U.S. oil companies will invest the billions of dollars over several years necessary to repair Venezuela's oil infrastructure and working with a state apparatus in Caracas that is the Maduro regime without Maduro and Chavistism without Hugo Chavez is about as realistic as pretty pictures of a Gaza fantasyland "development."
Venezuela, Greenland, the "Board of Peace" and all the other odd moments in foreign policy in the past year are symptoms of a much greater problem.
U.S. foreign policy today
Trump's foreign policy proclivities, like the rest of his life, reflect an overwhelming drive for immediate material or psychological gain. Trump lives by the old hippie mantra, "if it feels good, do it" with an emphasis on NOW. The supposed master of deal making does not seem to understand the difference between a one-off exchange and a continuing relationship. You treat the jerk who cuts you off in traffic more abruptly and rudely than your friend who irks you because you want to keep the relationship with the friend going.
Moreover the supposed master of deal making does not understand bargaining strategy. While his MAGA true believers hail his genius in always starting with a maximum position, in the real world starting with a maximum demand as a tactic means that you will often have to make concessions or risk getting nothing. That undermines your credibility. Greenland has to be an American territory, or else! Then it turns out we'll settle for some agreement that looks very much like what we already had with Denmark. Not only is the maximum demand untenable in most negotiations, but the bargaining is public and everyone can see that you weren't really serious about what you claimed you absolutely had. In short, always demanding too much leads to TACO [Trump Always Chickens Out] Tuesday.
The real issue?
One of the most important features of the world today is that for the first time since the first homo sapiens family lived in Africa, there is a global political, economic and social system that involves virtually every one of the 8.3 billion humans on the planet. At the heart of that system is a network of governmental organizations like the United Nations system of agencies, regional alliances like NATO and the OAS, and hundreds of non-governmental organizations. Some are devoted to the peaceful resolution of conflicts, others to a market driven global economic system with as little governmental interference as possible, and still others to tackling poverty, disease and promoting human rights. The goal has been a rules based international system in contrast to a world in which "the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must."
Cooperation requires leadership and support to turn short term loss into long term gains and providing that leadership has been the role of the United States. The basic institutions were designed in Washington reflect such basic American values as capitalism and democracy. The central role of the United States in financing and supporting the international order has meant that many rules for state behavior and strategies for cooperation coincide with American interests.
Until recently American foreign policy has been heavily influenced by the loosely defined community of scholars, professional diplomats and consultants, sometimes referred to as "The Blob", that developed a broad consensus that defined the mainstream analysis and discussions of foreign policy. It's worth noting that with the possible exception of Marco Rubio, no one involved in making policy in the White House today is a member of the Blob or has any experience with foreign policy.
The foolish assumption that international organizations undermine U.S. sovereignty and the tired and repeatedly debunked myth that foreign aid involves huge sums of money given to foreigners for which the U.S. receives nothing in return have led Trump and his amateurs to take a wrecking ball to 80 years of effort to create a rules based international order. The international system today is very much a work in progress that has, among many achievements, contributed directly to America's prosperity and security. The foreign policies of the United States have never been guided by naivete but by enlightened self interest.
Bombing Iran, invading Venezuela, raising and lowering and raising and lowering tariffs, coveting Greenland and all the other unilateral adventures and diversions of the past year that reflect amateurish immediate gratification tactics have damaged America's international reputation and position in the world, Some of them can be shrugged off by the rest of the world as aberrations unique to Trump. But the damage to the institutions of the international system, to America's status as a reliable ally and to America's image as a humane and caring society and land of opportunity may be irreparable.
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