The popular uprising that toppled the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia was the dramatic curtain raiser to the “Arab Spring”, the wave of unrest that has spread throughout much of the Middle East and North Africa. That opening act was followed by the riveting drama of Egypt. The most common media narrative centered on the youthful protesters in Tahir Square, Tweeting and organizing on Facebook and creating a revolution.
This dramatic and uplifting story is both wrong and incomplete. The narrative is wrong: social media did not create the popular uprising in Egypt and it was not a revolution. And the narrative is incomplete: the next stage of Egypt’s history is being worked out right now by serious politicians and organizations.
Social media, like all technologies, make some things easier. And we tend to notice the shiny new technologies and attribute more power to them than they deserve because we are typically more aware of change than continuity. (Blogs make expressing ideas and disseminating analysis quicker and easier than earlier technologies but even back in the day when it took days or even weeks for a handwritten letter or roughly printed newspaper to spread ideas and perspectives, the American colonials managed to get their act together and oust the British. Believe it or not, but the Minutemen gathered at Concord Bridge without a Facebook page or a single online Tweet.) The major contribution of social media to events in Egypt and elsewhere has been to make coordination easier. That’s an important factor but doesn’t have the wow and gee whiz panache of thinking we’re living in a brave new world.)
Despite the tendency of lots of us watching events unfold in Egypt and the self perception of the demonstrators, we were not seeing a spontaneous, leaderless expression of a deep yearning for democracy fueled by revolutionary youth. What we were seeing was a rebellion, largely fueled by discontented middle and upper middle class 20 and 30 somethings. And that rebellion was successful.
All governments rely on some mix of authority and coercion. Authority works, as long as most people think it is OK for the government to make rules and policies, or at least grudgingly accept the government’s actions. When authority fails, governments resort to coercion. And authority is ultimately based on two things. One is some kind of value, whether it be divine right of kings, or popular elections, or an ideology. The other, which becomes increasingly important over time, is the ability of a government to deliver the goods.
When they lose faith in the values of authority and fear of repression, people rebel. Successful rebellions mean the old leaders disappear. It is what happens next that becomes a revolution or a reactionary regime. That is the drama unfolding in Egypt today, but it lacks the dramatic visuals of hundreds of thousands of protestors and the simple story line of good people versus bad government.
